New York’s 11th District

U.S. House · NY-11

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 95% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.3 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 15%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat	Other
NY-11	52.1%	40.2%	7.7%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+7.9	54.5%−14.3	1.2%+6.5

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	15.5% (± 0.4)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Nicole Malliotakis · Republican

Held June 23, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Mike DeCillis	62.0%	10,001 votes
Republican primary	Nicole Malliotakis	0.0%

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Republicans won by 21.7 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 12.3 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.