California’s 6th District
U.S. House · CA-6
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 4%.
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| CA-6 | 59.7% | 40.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.5%+5.1 | 44.2%−3.9 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
2 polls
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Current member
Kevin Kiley · Other
Primary results
| Top-two primary | Kevin Kiley · Advanced to the general election | 24.3% | 47,165 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-two primary | Richard Pan · Advanced to the general election | 23.2% | 45,008 votes |
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 16.2 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 19.4 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 6 49%
- Former district 3 37%
- Former district 7 13%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated