Pennsylvania’s 16th District

U.S. House · PA-16

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 17.2 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 4%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat
PA-16	58.5%	41.5%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+14.3	54.5%−13.0

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	2.1%

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Mike Kelly · Republican

Held May 19, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Justin Wagner	100.0%	49,371 votes
Republican primary	Mike Kelly	100.0%	44,236 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Republicans won by 27.3 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 17.2 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.