Florida’s 28th District
U.S. House · FL-28
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 4%.
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| FL-28 | 59.5% | 40.5% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.2%+15.2 | 54.5%−14.0 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll, 2 scenarios
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 69.4% (± 1.0) |
|---|
Current member
Carlos Giménez · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Phil Ehr | 0.0% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Carlos Giménez | 0.0% |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 29.1 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 19.1 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated