Ohio’s 1st District
U.S. House · OH-1
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 88% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 24%.
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| OH-1 | 54.8% | 45.2% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.5%+0.3 | 44.2%+1.0 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Current member
Greg Landsman · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Greg Landsman | 67.9% | 36,984 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Eric Conroy | 71.9% | 25,603 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 25.3 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 10.6 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 1 52%
- Former district 2 38%
- Former district 8 9%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated