Texas’s 25th District

U.S. House · TX-25

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 94% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.8 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 13%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat
TX-25	56.7%	43.4%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+12.4	54.5%−11.2

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	17.5% (± 0.5)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Roger Williams · Republican

Held March 3, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Dione Sims	60.5%	32,388 votes
Republican primary	Roger Williams	100.0%	60,296 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Republicans won by 97.7 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 13.8 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.