Texas’s 31st District
U.S. House · TX-31
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Republicans a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 17.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 6%.
Compared with the average
| Republican | Democrat | |
|---|---|---|
| TX-31 | 58.4% | 41.6% |
| National averageUnited States | 44.2%+14.2 | 54.5%−12.9 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
John Carter · Republican
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Justin Early | 57.6% | 31,881 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | John Carter | 59.7% | 45,834 votes |
Republican 
Democrat Previous election (2024)
The Republicans won by 48.8 points.
Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 17.0 points.
Where these voters came from
This district was redrawn in the 2025-2026 redistricting. Share of its voters from each former district:
- Former district 31 72%
- Former district 11 28%
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated