New Hampshire’s 1st District
U.S. House · NH-1
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 92% chance of winning, with an average lead of 10.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 21%.
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| NH-1 | 55.0% | 44.7% | 0.4% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.5%+0.5 | 44.2%+0.4 | 1.2%−0.9 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 3.3% (± 0.2) |
|---|
Current member
Pappas, Chris · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Stefany Shaheen | 36.9% | 29,571 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Anthony DiLorenzo | 51.5% | 29,409 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 7.8 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 10.9 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated