Wisconsin’s 8th District

U.S. House · WI-8

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 76% chance of winning, with an average lead of 7.0 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 43%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat
WI-8	52.5%	47.6%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+8.2	54.5%−7.0

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	3.7% (± 0.1)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Tony Wied · Republican

Held August 11, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Democratic primary	Rick Crosson	35.3%	24,970 votes
Republican primary	Tony Wied	100.0%	63,211 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Republicans won by 14.7 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 7.0 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.