Delaware — at-large district
U.S. House · DE-AL
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 26.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| DE-AL | 63.2% | 36.8% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.5%+8.7 | 44.2%−7.4 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 6.8% (± 0.2) |
|---|
Current member
Sarah McBride · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Sarah McBride | 0.0% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Joseph Arminio | 47.9% | 18,629 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 15.7 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 26.4 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated