New Mexico’s 1st District
U.S. House · NM-1
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 22.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| NM-1 | 61.3% | 38.7% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.5%+6.8 | 44.2%−5.6 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 37.1% (± 0.5) |
|---|
Current member
Melanie Ann Stansbury · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Melanie Ann Stansbury | 100.0% | 79,823 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Ndidiamaka Ekwua Charlene Okpareke | 100.0% | 31,809 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 12.7 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 22.7 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated