New Mexico’s 3rd District
U.S. House · NM-3
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 21.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| NM-3 | 60.5% | 39.5% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.5%+6.0 | 44.2%−4.8 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
1 poll
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 37.3% (± 0.4) |
|---|
Current member
Teresa Leger Fernandez · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Teresa Leger Fernandez | 100.0% | 68,768 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Martin Zamora | 100.0% | 32,901 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 12.6 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 21.1 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated