New York’s 2nd District

U.S. House · NY-2

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 72% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.8 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 44%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat	Other
NY-2	46.1%	41.9%	12.0%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+1.8	54.5%−12.6	1.2%+10.8

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	20.7% (± 0.6)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Andrew Garbarino · Republican

Held June 23, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Patrick Halpin	0.0%
Republican primary	Andrew Garbarino	0.0%

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Republicans won by 13.9 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 6.8 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.