Washington’s 3rd District
U.S. House · WA-3
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 90% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 26%.
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | |
|---|---|---|
| WA-3 | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.5% | 44.2%+1.3 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Polls in this district
3 polls, 4 scenarios
Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 7.3% (± 0.2) |
|---|
Current member
Marie Gluesenkamp Perez · Democrat
Primary results
| Top-two primary | John Braun · Advanced to the general election | 39.7% | 85,064 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Top-two primary | Marie Gluesenkamp Perez · Advanced to the general election | 36.4% | 78,025 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 3.9 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 9.7 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated