Massachusetts’s 9th District
U.S. House · MA-9
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 23.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| MA-9 | 61.1% | 37.2% | 1.8% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.5%+6.5 | 44.2%−7.0 | 1.2%+0.5 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 4.1% (± 0.2) |
|---|
Current member
Bill Keating · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Bill Keating | 0.0% | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | R. Tyler MacAllister | 100.0% |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 12.5 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 23.9 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated