Connecticut’s 5th District

U.S. House · CT-5

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 16.4 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 6%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Democrat	Republican	Other
CT-5	58.0%	41.7%	0.3%
National averageUnited States	54.5%+3.5	44.2%−2.5	1.2%−1.0

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	16.1% (± 0.5)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Jahana Hayes · Democrat

Held August 11, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Jahana Hayes	0.0%
Republican primary	Chris Shea	81.0%	10,261 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Democrats won by 4.2 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 16.4 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.