Connecticut’s 4th District

U.S. House · CT-4

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 34.7 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Democrat	Republican	Other
CT-4	67.4%	32.6%	0.0%
National averageUnited States	54.5%+12.9	44.2%−11.6	1.2%−1.2

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	16.5% (± 0.5)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Jim Himes · Democrat

Held August 11, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Jim Himes	0.0%
Republican primary	Michael Goldstein	74.3%	4,632 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Jim Himes
source
Republican Challenger

Daniel Miressi

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Challenger

Michael Goldstein
source

The Democrats won by 23.7 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 34.7 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.