Oregon’s 5th District
U.S. House · OR-5
Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Democrats a 98% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 8%.
Compared with the average
| Democrat | Republican | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|
| OR-5 | 55.0% | 40.1% | 4.9% |
| National averageUnited States | 54.5%+0.5 | 44.2%−4.2 | 1.2%+3.6 |
Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Local profile
| Latino citizens aged 18 and over | 6.9% (± 0.3) |
|---|
Current member
Janelle Bynum · Democrat
Primary results
| Democratic primary | Janelle Bynum | 82.0% | 70,294 votes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Republican primary | Patti Adair | 59.6% | 43,524 votes |
Democrat 
Republican Previous election (2024)
The Democrats won by 2.7 points.
Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 15.1 points.
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated