Oregon’s 6th District

U.S. House · OR-6

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 18.3 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 3%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Democrat	Republican
OR-6	59.1%	40.9%
National averageUnited States	54.5%+4.6	44.2%−3.3

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	13.9% (± 0.4)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Andrea Salinas · Democrat

Held May 19, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Andrea Salinas	98.7%	62,532 votes
Republican primary	David Russ	98.4%	44,027 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Andrea Salinas
source
Other Challenger

Faler, Jason J

General-election qualification remains to be verified.
Republican Challenger

David Russ
source

The Democrats won by 6.9 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 18.3 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.