Oregon’s 4th District

U.S. House · OR-4

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.6 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Democrat	Republican	Other
OR-4	58.8%	39.3%	1.9%
National averageUnited States	54.5%+4.3	44.2%−5.0	1.2%+0.7

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	6.6% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Val Hoyle · Democrat

Held May 19, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Val Hoyle	75.2%	68,900 votes
Republican primary	Monique DeSpain	86.6%	59,232 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Democrats won by 7.8 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 19.6 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.