Idaho’s 2nd District

U.S. House · ID-2

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.2 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 3%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat	Other
ID-2	54.7%	35.6%	9.7%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+10.5	54.5%−18.9	1.2%+8.4

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	10.0% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Mike Simpson · Republican

Held May 19, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Elinor Gilbreath	72.5%	19,523 votes
Republican primary	Mike Simpson	63.3%	63,448 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Mike Simpson
source
Democrat Challenger

Elinor Gilbreath
source
Other Challenger

Hutchinson, Tripp Charles

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

The Republicans won by 28.9 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 19.2 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.