Illinois’s 12th District

U.S. House · IL-12

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 37.5 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat
IL-12	68.7%	31.3%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+24.5	54.5%−23.2

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	2.1% (± 0.1)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Mike Bost · Republican

Held March 17, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Julie Fortier	100.0%	26,791 votes
Republican primary	Mike Bost	100.0%	81,400 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

The Republicans won by 48.4 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 37.5 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.