Nebraska’s 3rd District

U.S. House · NE-3

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 49.6 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

	Republican	Democrat
NE-3	74.8%	25.2%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+30.5	54.5%−29.3

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	7.8% (± 0.2)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Adrian Smith · Republican

Held May 12, 2026 · Official source

Democratic primary	Becky Stille	100.0%	18,113 votes
Republican primary	Adrian Smith	64.7%	60,549 votes

Who's running

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Adrian Smith
source
Democrat Challenger

Becky Stille
source
Other Challenger

Cohen, Mark

General-election qualification remains to be verified.

The Republicans won by 60.8 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 49.6 points.

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Watch list

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.