Washington’s 5th District

U.S. House · WA-5

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 15, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 94% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.3 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 19%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 55.4%

Michael Baumgartner, incumbent
Democrat 44.6%

Carmela Conroy

Thin vertical mark: 2024 result.

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat
WA-5	55.4%	44.6%
National averageUnited States	44.2%+11.2	54.5%−9.9

Simple average of the 435 districts, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

1 poll, 5 scenarios

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Tavern Research Contours Inc. Scenario 1	18–May 25, 2026	578	likely voters	Nate Powell (Ind.) 53 Michael Baumgartner (R) 47	See the poll
Tavern Research Contours Inc. Scenario 2	18–May 25, 2026	578	likely voters	Michael Baumgartner (R) 53 Carmela Conroy (D) 47	See the poll
Tavern Research Contours Inc. Scenario 3	18–May 25, 2026	578	likely voters	Michael Baumgartner (R) 53 Generic Democrat (D) 47	See the poll
Tavern Research Contours Inc. Scenario 4	18–May 25, 2026	578	likely voters	Michael Baumgartner (R) 54 David Womack (D) 46	See the poll
Tavern Research Contours Inc. Scenario 5	18–May 25, 2026	578	likely voters	Michael Baumgartner (R) 54 Bajun Mavalwalla (D) 46	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Local profile

Latino citizens aged 18 and over	6.4% (± 0.1)

Share of all citizens aged 18 and over (ACS 2020–2024 estimate). Not a share of registered or actual voters.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, citizen voting-age population by race and ethnicity, ACS 2020–2024, 119th Congress districts

Current member

Michael Baumgartner · Republican

Primary results

Held August 4, 2026 · Certified official result · Official source

Top-two primary	Michael Baumgartner · Advanced to the general election	47.4%	96,791 votes
Top-two primary	Carmela Conroy · Advanced to the general election	18.9%	38,487 votes

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Michael Baumgartner
source
Democrat Challenger

Carmela Conroy
source

Previous election (2024)

The Republicans won by 21.3 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 11.3 points.

Nearby districts

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

WA-4 Republican, competitive
WA-8 Democrat, safe seat
WA-1 Democrat, safe seat
WA-9 Democrat, safe seat
WA-2 Democrat, safe seat
WA-7 Democrat, safe seat

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 15, 2026