VoteScope Labs · Updated October 4, 2026
Orbit Live experiment QuantumRelativisticQubits
Quebec 2026
Same polls, different physics. Here is what Orbit, our quantum engine, sees next to Harfang des neiges, our classical model.
Orbit’s favourite
Parti Quebecois Seats won
68Harfang 62 8 in 10 chance between 45 and 73Chance of a majority (64)
37%Harfang 29% Parti QuebecoisSame favourite as Harfang des neiges
92% of ridingsOrbit (quantum) vs. Harfang des neiges (classical): do they agree?
Same winner, different call on the majority
- Parti Quebecois
-
QLP -
Conservatives of Quebec -
Quebec Solidaire -
CAQ
What if we listened to both engines at once?
50/50 blend: Parti Quebecois 65 · Chance of a majority33%
The blend gives each riding the average of the chances announced by Orbit and by our reference forecast, then counts the favourites. In our Quebec replays (2018 and 2022, the day before the vote), the blend always beat the reference forecast alone: in 2018 the error drops from 6.5 to 4.5 seats, and the announced probabilities become far more reliable. The 50/50 split is a choice of principle, not a setting tuned on those two elections. October 5 will be its first real blind test.
Quantum draw
The election, drawn on a real quantum computer
Each contested riding becomes one or two qubits, tuned so that measuring them returns each party with exactly its chance according to Orbit. Every measurement of the circuit is a complete election. We repeated the experiment thousands of times, across 256 provincial scenarios.
- Machine
- ibm_fez
- Draw
- October 5 at 12:10 AM EDT
- Elections drawn
- 65,536
- Qubits per circuit
- 60
- Machine time
- 80 s
Parti Quebecois seats: what the machine drew
- Raw draw from the machine
- After readout-error correction
- Orbit’s exact calculation
Average seats by party
| Party | Exact | Machine, raw | Machine, corrected |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Quebecois | 59.8 | 58.8 | 59.2 |
| QLP | 37.4 | 37.1 | 37.1 |
| Conservatives of Quebec | 17.0 | 17.3 | 17.3 |
| Quebec Solidaire | 7.9 | 7.9 | 8.0 |
| CAQ | 4.8 | 5.8 | 5.4 |
| Chance of a majority: Parti Quebecois | 37% | 32% | 34% |
Every draw of the night
PQ average seats: Orbit’s exact calculation, raw machine, corrected machine; then chance of a majority (exact → raw → corrected). The first two draws were made before the final Forum poll; each row’s exact calculation is Orbit’s at that time. “Twirling”: each circuit is replayed under random wrappers that turn the chip’s systematic errors into noise that averages out.
| Draw | Elections | Exact | Machine, raw | Machine, corrected | Chance of a majority |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| marrakesh · 09:55 PM | 16,384 | 61.3 | 59.0 | 59.5 | 42% → 33% → 34% |
| fez · 10:07 PM | 16,384 | 61.3 | 59.6 | 60.0 | 42% → 35% → 37% |
| fez · 12:10 AM | 65,536 | 59.8 | 58.8 | 59.2 | 37% → 32% → 34% |
| fez · 02:01 AM · twirling | 65,536 | 59.8 | 58.7 | 59.3 | 37% → 31% → 34% |
All 127 ridings, one by one
For each riding: the favourite’s chance according to Orbit’s exact calculation, and how often the machine made it win. Safe ridings (0 qubits) skip the machine: the same party wins in every scenario.
| Riding | Qubits | Favourite | Exact | Machine | Other outcomes drawn |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abitibi-Est | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 47% | 48% | QLP 40% · Conservatives of Quebec 9% · CAQ 4% |
| Abitibi-Ouest | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 96% | 94% | Conservatives of Quebec 3% · CAQ 2% · QLP < 1% |
| Acadie | 2 | QLP | 98% | 91% | Conservatives of Quebec 8% · Parti Quebecois 1% · Quebec Solidaire < 1% |
| Anjou-Louis-Riel | 2 | QLP | 93% | 91% | Parti Quebecois 8% · Conservatives of Quebec < 1% · Quebec Solidaire < 1% |
| Argenteuil | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 75% | 71% | QLP 22% · Conservatives of Quebec 4% · CAQ 3% |
| Arthabaska-L’Érable | 2 | Conservatives of Quebec | 73% | 71% | Parti Quebecois 22% · CAQ 6% · QLP < 1% |
| Beauce-Nord | 2 | Conservatives of Quebec | > 99% | 97% | CAQ 2% · Parti Quebecois < 1% |
| Beauce-Sud | safe | Conservatives of Quebec | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| Beauharnois | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 78% | 75% | CAQ 14% · QLP 10% · Conservatives of Quebec 1% |
| Bellechasse | 2 | Conservatives of Quebec | 98% | 94% | Parti Quebecois 4% · CAQ 2% |
| Bellefeuille | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 85% | 80% | QLP 14% · CAQ 4% · Conservatives of Quebec 2% |
| Berthier | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 96% | 94% | CAQ 4% · Conservatives of Quebec 1% · QLP < 1% |
| Bertrand | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 96% | 95% | QLP 3% · CAQ 2% |
| Blainville | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 66% | 65% | QLP 29% · CAQ 6% · Conservatives of Quebec < 1% |
| Bonaventure | 2 | Parti Quebecois | > 99% | 95% | QLP 3% · CAQ 2% |
| Borduas | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 93% | 80% | CAQ 17% · QLP 2% · Conservatives of Quebec < 1% |
| Bourassa-Sauvé | 2 | QLP | > 99% | 91% | Parti Quebecois 8% · Conservatives of Quebec < 1% |
| Brome-Missisquoi | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 59% | 58% | QLP 28% · Conservatives of Quebec 9% · CAQ 5% |
| Camille-Laurin | 1 | Parti Quebecois | > 99% | 99% | QLP 1% |
| Chambly | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 87% | 83% | QLP 11% · CAQ 5% · Conservatives of Quebec < 1% |
| Champlain | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 47% | 47% | Conservatives of Quebec 32% · CAQ 19% · QLP 2% |
| Chapleau | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 36% | 35% | QLP 32% · CAQ 24% · Conservatives of Quebec 9% |
| Charlesbourg | 2 | Conservatives of Quebec | 59% | 59% | Parti Quebecois 36% · QLP 3% · CAQ 2% |
| Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 67% | 66% | Conservatives of Quebec 29% · CAQ 4% · QLP 1% |
| Châteauguay | 2 | QLP | 91% | 89% | Parti Quebecois 9% · Conservatives of Quebec < 1% |
| Chauveau | 2 | Conservatives of Quebec | 99% | 94% | Parti Quebecois 5% · CAQ 1% |
| Chicoutimi | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 57% | 55% | CAQ 42% · Conservatives of Quebec 2% |
| Chomedey | 2 | QLP | 86% | 86% | Conservatives of Quebec 13% · Parti Quebecois < 1% |
| Chutes-de-la-Chaudière | 2 | Conservatives of Quebec | 90% | 86% | Parti Quebecois 12% · CAQ 2% · QLP < 1% |
| Côte-du-Sud | 2 | Conservatives of Quebec | 60% | 56% | Parti Quebecois 35% · CAQ 5% · QLP 4% |
| D'Arcy-McGee | 1 | QLP | 93% | 93% | Conservatives of Quebec 7% |
| Daniel-Johnson | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 76% | 74% | Conservatives of Quebec 14% · CAQ 9% · QLP 3% |
| Deux-Montagnes | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 78% | 77% | QLP 20% · CAQ 3% · Conservatives of Quebec < 1% |
| Drummond–Bois-Francs | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 70% | 69% | Conservatives of Quebec 24% · CAQ 6% · QLP < 1% |
| Dubuc | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 81% | 79% | CAQ 17% · Conservatives of Quebec 4% |
| Duplessis | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 94% | 92% | Conservatives of Quebec 7% · CAQ < 1% |
| Fabre | 2 | QLP | 88% | 84% | Conservatives of Quebec 12% · Parti Quebecois 4% |
| Gaspé | safe | Parti Quebecois | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| Gatineau | 2 | QLP | 69% | 67% | Parti Quebecois 22% · Conservatives of Quebec 6% · CAQ 5% |
| Gouin | 2 | Quebec Solidaire | 99% | 96% | Parti Quebecois 3% · QLP < 1% |
| Granby | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 63% | 62% | CAQ 24% · Conservatives of Quebec 8% · QLP 6% |
| Groulx | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 67% | 66% | QLP 28% · CAQ 5% · Conservatives of Quebec < 1% |
| Hochelaga-Maisonneuve | 2 | Quebec Solidaire | 92% | 89% | Parti Quebecois 9% · QLP 1% |
| Hull | 2 | QLP | 88% | 85% | Parti Quebecois 12% · Quebec Solidaire 2% · Conservatives of Quebec < 1% |
| Huntingdon | 2 | QLP | 56% | 55% | Parti Quebecois 36% · CAQ 6% · Conservatives of Quebec 4% |
| Iberville | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 77% | 75% | CAQ 18% · QLP 5% · Conservatives of Quebec 2% |
| Îles-de-la-Madeleine | safe | Parti Quebecois | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| Jacques-Cartier | safe | QLP | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| Jean-Lesage | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 33% | 33% | Conservatives of Quebec 33% · Quebec Solidaire 30% · QLP 4% |
| Jean-Talon | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 73% | 71% | QLP 23% · Conservatives of Quebec 5% · Quebec Solidaire < 1% |
| Jeanne-Mance–Viger | 1 | QLP | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| Joliette | safe | Parti Quebecois | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| Jonquière | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 84% | 83% | CAQ 15% · Conservatives of Quebec 2% |
| L'Assomption | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 80% | 75% | CAQ 19% · QLP 5% · Conservatives of Quebec < 1% |
| La Peltrie | 2 | Conservatives of Quebec | 96% | 93% | Parti Quebecois 6% · QLP 1% |
| La Pinière | 1 | QLP | > 99% | > 99% | Parti Quebecois < 1% |
| La Prairie | 2 | QLP | 56% | 56% | Parti Quebecois 29% · CAQ 15% · Conservatives of Quebec < 1% |
| Labelle | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 91% | 89% | CAQ 7% · QLP 3% · Conservatives of Quebec < 1% |
| Lac-Saint-Jean | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 99% | 97% | CAQ 1% · Conservatives of Quebec 1% |
| LaFontaine | 1 | QLP | > 99% | > 99% | Conservatives of Quebec < 1% |
| Laurier-Dorion | 2 | Quebec Solidaire | 97% | 93% | QLP 5% · Parti Quebecois 2% |
| Laval-des-Rapides | 2 | QLP | 89% | 86% | Parti Quebecois 12% · Conservatives of Quebec 1% |
| Laviolette–Saint-Maurice | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 75% | 73% | Conservatives of Quebec 20% · CAQ 6% · QLP 1% |
| Les Plaines | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 83% | 81% | QLP 11% · CAQ 7% · Conservatives of Quebec 1% |
| Lévis | 2 | Conservatives of Quebec | 66% | 63% | Parti Quebecois 30% · CAQ 5% · QLP 2% |
| Lotbinière-Frontenac | 2 | Conservatives of Quebec | 96% | 93% | Parti Quebecois 5% · QLP < 1% · CAQ < 1% |
| Louis-Hébert | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 67% | 66% | Conservatives of Quebec 23% · QLP 9% · CAQ 3% |
| Marguerite-Bourgeoys | 2 | QLP | > 99% | 97% | Conservatives of Quebec 2% · Parti Quebecois < 1% |
| Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 72% | 67% | Conservatives of Quebec 21% · CAQ 9% · QLP 2% |
| Marie-Victorin | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 94% | 92% | QLP 7% · Quebec Solidaire < 1% |
| Marquette | 2 | QLP | > 99% | 97% | Conservatives of Quebec 2% · Parti Quebecois 1% |
| Maskinongé | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 67% | 66% | Conservatives of Quebec 21% · CAQ 11% · QLP 2% |
| Masson | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 87% | 82% | QLP 12% · CAQ 5% · Conservatives of Quebec < 1% |
| Matane-Matapédia-Mitis | safe | Parti Quebecois | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| Maurice-Richard | 2 | Quebec Solidaire | 58% | 58% | Parti Quebecois 27% · QLP 15% · Conservatives of Quebec 1% |
| Mégantic | 2 | Conservatives of Quebec | 52% | 52% | Parti Quebecois 44% · CAQ 2% · QLP 2% |
| Mercier | 2 | Quebec Solidaire | 97% | 92% | Parti Quebecois 7% · QLP 1% |
| Mille-Îles | 2 | QLP | 93% | 92% | Parti Quebecois 6% · Conservatives of Quebec 2% |
| Mirabel | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 86% | 81% | QLP 11% · CAQ 6% · Conservatives of Quebec 1% |
| Mont-Royal–Outremont | 2 | QLP | 97% | 95% | Parti Quebecois 3% · Quebec Solidaire 2% |
| Montarville | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 77% | 75% | QLP 22% · CAQ 3% |
| Montmorency | 2 | Conservatives of Quebec | 88% | 83% | Parti Quebecois 15% · QLP 1% · CAQ < 1% |
| Nelligan | 1 | QLP | > 99% | 99% | Conservatives of Quebec 1% |
| Nicolet-Bécancour | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 61% | 61% | Conservatives of Quebec 37% · CAQ 2% · QLP < 1% |
| Notre-Dame-de-Grâce | safe | QLP | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| Orford | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 58% | 56% | QLP 36% · Conservatives of Quebec 6% · CAQ 2% |
| Papineau | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 44% | 44% | CAQ 24% · Conservatives of Quebec 20% · QLP 11% |
| Pierre-Laporte | 2 | QLP | 95% | 94% | Parti Quebecois 5% |
| Pointe-aux-Trembles | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 89% | 87% | CAQ 7% · QLP 4% · Quebec Solidaire 1% |
| Pontiac | 2 | QLP | > 99% | 92% | Conservatives of Quebec 5% · Parti Quebecois 3% |
| Portneuf | 2 | Conservatives of Quebec | 92% | 89% | Parti Quebecois 10% · CAQ 1% |
| Prévost | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 95% | 93% | QLP 4% · CAQ 2% · Conservatives of Quebec < 1% |
| René-Lévesque | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 91% | 87% | CAQ 10% · Conservatives of Quebec 3% |
| Repentigny | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 78% | 67% | QLP 16% · CAQ 15% · Conservatives of Quebec 2% |
| Richelieu | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 91% | 77% | CAQ 11% · QLP 10% · Conservatives of Quebec 2% |
| Richmond | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 60% | 58% | Conservatives of Quebec 32% · CAQ 6% · QLP 4% |
| Rimouski | safe | Parti Quebecois | > 99% | > 99% | — |
| Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 89% | 86% | Conservatives of Quebec 7% · CAQ 6% · QLP < 1% |
| Robert-Baldwin | 1 | QLP | > 99% | > 99% | Conservatives of Quebec < 1% |
| Roberval | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 93% | 91% | CAQ 6% · Conservatives of Quebec 2% |
| Rosemont | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 55% | 54% | Quebec Solidaire 43% · QLP 2% |
| Rousseau | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 90% | 89% | CAQ 7% · Conservatives of Quebec 3% · QLP 1% |
| Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 64% | 63% | Quebec Solidaire 20% · CAQ 11% · Conservatives of Quebec 7% |
| Saint-François | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 44% | 43% | Quebec Solidaire 22% · QLP 18% · Conservatives of Quebec 17% |
| Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne | 2 | QLP | 90% | 85% | Quebec Solidaire 14% · Parti Quebecois 1% |
| Saint-Hyacinthe | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 83% | 78% | CAQ 20% · QLP 2% · Conservatives of Quebec < 1% |
| Saint-Jean | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 92% | 89% | CAQ 7% · QLP 4% |
| Saint-Jérôme | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 94% | 81% | CAQ 16% · QLP 3% · Conservatives of Quebec < 1% |
| Saint-Laurent | 1 | QLP | > 99% | 99% | Conservatives of Quebec 1% |
| Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques | 2 | Quebec Solidaire | 93% | 90% | Parti Quebecois 7% · QLP 2% |
| Sainte-Rose | 2 | QLP | 75% | 48% | Parti Quebecois 47% · Conservatives of Quebec 3% · CAQ 2% |
| Sanguinet | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 76% | 72% | QLP 20% · CAQ 6% · Conservatives of Quebec 2% |
| Sherbrooke | 2 | Quebec Solidaire | 74% | 72% | Parti Quebecois 23% · QLP 3% · Conservatives of Quebec 2% |
| Soulanges | 2 | QLP | 91% | 89% | Parti Quebecois 8% · Conservatives of Quebec 2% · CAQ < 1% |
| Taillon | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 85% | 75% | QLP 23% · CAQ 2% · Conservatives of Quebec < 1% |
| Taschereau | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 88% | 82% | Quebec Solidaire 16% · QLP 1% · Conservatives of Quebec 1% |
| Terrebonne | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 83% | 77% | QLP 20% · CAQ 3% · Conservatives of Quebec < 1% |
| Trois-Rivières | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 77% | 73% | CAQ 14% · Conservatives of Quebec 10% · QLP 3% |
| Ungava | 2 | QLP | 56% | 54% | Parti Quebecois 38% · Conservatives of Quebec 4% · Quebec Solidaire 4% |
| Vachon | 2 | QLP | 63% | 60% | Parti Quebecois 32% · CAQ 5% · Conservatives of Quebec 2% |
| Vanier-Les Rivières | 2 | Conservatives of Quebec | 60% | 58% | Parti Quebecois 35% · QLP 4% · CAQ 3% |
| Vaudreuil | 2 | QLP | > 99% | 97% | Conservatives of Quebec 2% · Parti Quebecois < 1% |
| Verchères | 2 | Parti Quebecois | 95% | 92% | CAQ 6% · QLP 2% |
| Verdun | 2 | QLP | 69% | 64% | Quebec Solidaire 28% · Parti Quebecois 7% · Conservatives of Quebec 2% |
| Viau | 2 | QLP | 89% | 86% | Quebec Solidaire 13% · Parti Quebecois < 1% |
| Vimont-Auteuil | 2 | QLP | 91% | 89% | Parti Quebecois 6% · Conservatives of Quebec 5% |
| Westmount–Saint-Louis | 1 | QLP | > 99% | > 99% | Conservatives of Quebec < 1% |
What this shows, and what it does not
- It shows that a real quantum computer can already draw an election at the scale of Quebec, and how much its noise distorts it: qubits sometimes flip, handing ridings to less likely parties.
- Readout-error correction, calibrated by IBM for every qubit, removes a good share of that gap. The rest comes from operations between qubits.
- It does not make the forecast more accurate: Orbit already computes the same distribution exactly, on an ordinary computer. It is a scientific experiment, run in the open.
IBM jobs: db1i4jeegvvc73bhla6g · db1i4tavog1s73fi5bt0 · db1i5j3id5ic73er5ci0 · db1i5v6egvvc73bhlckg
Second experiment
The entangled election: does the joint movement survive the noise?
An election is not decided riding by riding: a polling error or a regional wave moves dozens of ridings in the same direction. We asked two IBM chips to reproduce that joint movement on the ridings our two models find most uncertain — 10, then 30, 60 and 90. Two circuits each time: one without entanglement, where each riding is drawn on its own; the other where two “climate” qubits, entangled with every riding, carry the mood of the campaign. The right answer is known in advance: we compute it exactly on an ordinary computer.
Share of the joint movement recovered
| Ridings | Qubits | Two-qubit operations | Perfect machine | Marrakesh | Fez |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 20 | 105 | 76% | 58% | 71% |
| 30 | 52 | 370 | 68% | 24% | 31% |
| 60 | 102 | 928 | 72% | 13% | 16% |
| 90 | 152 | 1,669 | 63% | 4% | 7% |
How to read it: 100% = correlations between ridings reproduced perfectly; 0% = no better than the circuit without entanglement, which reproduces none. “Perfect machine”: the same circuit on a noiseless simulator.
How many favourites win, from one draw to the next (standard deviation)
90 ridings: 5.1 under the exact distribution, 3.9 without entanglement, 4.5 with it. The larger it is, the more ridings flip as a block.
What it means for the vote
When ridings move together, the election tends to break one way or the other — very good for the PQ, or clearly less so — rather than landing in the middle. Here are the PQ’s seats according to our two engines, as they are (linked ridings), then with the same chance in each riding but no link between them. The middle zone runs from 58 to 67 seats.
| Engine | 8 in 10 range | PQ ≤ 55 | In the middle | PQ ≥ 70 | Majority | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harfang des neiges | linked (reality) | 52–67 | 20% | 61% | 4% | 29% |
| independent | 56–64 | 8% | 78% | 0% | 14% | |
| Orbit | linked (reality) | 45–73 | 35% | 35% | 17% | 37% |
| independent | 54–64 | 16% | 67% | 0% | 13% |
Both engines agree: because ridings move together, a lopsided result in one direction or the other is far more likely than if each riding voted on its own — two to three times more for a PQ below 56 seats, dozens of times more for a PQ at 70 or more. Orbit sees much stronger common movements than our reference forecast: for Orbit, the middle scenario is the minority one. The few close ridings where the two engines disagree are the ones that will decide which way it tips.
What we take away
- At small scale, entanglement does its job on a real chip: with 10 ridings it recovers most of the joint movement, which the circuit without entanglement cannot produce at all.
- Noise erases it as operations pile up: beyond about a thousand operations between qubits, the shared signal nearly vanishes, and each riding’s chances degrade too.
- Both chips agree: we are measuring a property of this generation of machines, not a flaw in one particular chip.
- It predicts nothing more: this distribution can be computed exactly on an ordinary computer. It is a benchmark, frozen before the vote, to measure where quantum machines stand.
Machine time for both chips: 22 s.
All 127 ridings: Harfang des neiges, Orbit and the blend
For each riding, the favourite and its chance of winning according to our reference forecast (Harfang des neiges), according to Orbit, and according to the 50/50 blend, which averages both chances. The two engines pick the same favourite in 117 of 127 ridings; the others are flagged.
| Riding | Harfang des neiges | Orbit | 50/50 blend |
|---|---|---|---|
| Abitibi-Est | Parti Quebecois55% | Parti Quebecois47% | Parti Quebecois51% |
| Abitibi-Ouest | Parti Quebecois> 99% | Parti Quebecois96% | Parti Quebecois98% |
| Acadie | QLP> 99% | QLP98% | QLP> 99% |
| Anjou-Louis-Riel | QLP> 99% | QLP93% | QLP97% |
| Argenteuil | Parti Quebecois79% | Parti Quebecois75% | Parti Quebecois77% |
| Arthabaska-L’Érable | Conservatives of Quebec88% | Conservatives of Quebec73% | Conservatives of Quebec81% |
| Beauce-Nord | Conservatives of Quebec> 99% | Conservatives of Quebec> 99% | Conservatives of Quebec> 99% |
| Beauce-Sud | Conservatives of Quebec> 99% | Conservatives of Quebec> 99% | Conservatives of Quebec> 99% |
| Beauharnois | Parti Quebecois93% | Parti Quebecois78% | Parti Quebecois85% |
| Bellechasse | Conservatives of Quebec> 99% | Conservatives of Quebec98% | Conservatives of Quebec98% |
| Bellefeuillesplit | CAQ33% | Parti Quebecois85% | Parti Quebecois58% |
| Berthier | Parti Quebecois98% | Parti Quebecois95% | Parti Quebecois97% |
| Bertrand | Parti Quebecois99% | Parti Quebecois96% | Parti Quebecois97% |
| Blainville | Parti Quebecois72% | Parti Quebecois67% | Parti Quebecois69% |
| Bonaventure | Parti Quebecois> 99% | Parti Quebecois> 99% | Parti Quebecois> 99% |
| Borduas | Parti Quebecois97% | Parti Quebecois92% | Parti Quebecois95% |
| Bourassa-Sauvé | QLP> 99% | QLP> 99% | QLP> 99% |
| Brome-Missisquoi | Parti Quebecois55% | Parti Quebecois57% | Parti Quebecois56% |
| Camille-Laurin | Parti Quebecois> 99% | Parti Quebecois> 99% | Parti Quebecois> 99% |
| Chambly | Parti Quebecois91% | Parti Quebecois87% | Parti Quebecois89% |
| Champlainsplit | Conservatives of Quebec48% | Parti Quebecois44% | Parti Quebecois43% |
| Chapleausplit | QLP73% | Parti Quebecois34% | QLP52% |
| Charlesbourg | Conservatives of Quebec70% | Conservatives of Quebec60% | Conservatives of Quebec65% |
| Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré | Parti Quebecois68% | Parti Quebecois67% | Parti Quebecois68% |
| Châteauguay | QLP87% | QLP90% | QLP88% |
| Chauveau | Conservatives of Quebec97% | Conservatives of Quebec99% | Conservatives of Quebec98% |
| Chicoutimi | Parti Quebecois> 99% | Parti Quebecois56% | Parti Quebecois78% |
| Chomedey | QLP> 99% | QLP86% | QLP93% |
| Chutes-de-la-Chaudière | Conservatives of Quebec86% | Conservatives of Quebec90% | Conservatives of Quebec88% |
| Côte-du-Sud | Conservatives of Quebec68% | Conservatives of Quebec59% | Conservatives of Quebec64% |
| D'Arcy-McGee | QLP> 99% | QLP94% | QLP97% |
| Daniel-Johnsonsplit | Conservatives of Quebec51% | Parti Quebecois74% | Parti Quebecois42% |
| Deux-Montagnes | Parti Quebecois84% | Parti Quebecois78% | Parti Quebecois81% |
| Drummond–Bois-Francs | Parti Quebecois69% | Parti Quebecois67% | Parti Quebecois68% |
| Dubuc | Parti Quebecois> 99% | Parti Quebecois80% | Parti Quebecois89% |
| Duplessis | Parti Quebecois> 99% | Parti Quebecois95% | Parti Quebecois97% |
| Fabre | QLP> 99% | QLP89% | QLP94% |
| Gaspé | Parti Quebecois> 99% | Parti Quebecois> 99% | Parti Quebecois> 99% |
| Gatineau | QLP96% | QLP68% | QLP82% |
| Gouin | Quebec Solidaire97% | Quebec Solidaire> 99% | Quebec Solidaire98% |
| Granbysplit | CAQ54% | Parti Quebecois60% | Parti Quebecois46% |
| Groulx | Parti Quebecois78% | Parti Quebecois68% | Parti Quebecois73% |
| Hochelaga-Maisonneuve | Quebec Solidaire86% | Quebec Solidaire92% | Quebec Solidaire89% |
| Hull | QLP> 99% | QLP88% | QLP93% |
| Huntingdon | QLP45% | QLP53% | QLP49% |
| Iberville | Parti Quebecois81% | Parti Quebecois77% | Parti Quebecois79% |
| Îles-de-la-Madeleine | Parti Quebecois> 99% | Parti Quebecois> 99% | Parti Quebecois> 99% |
| Jacques-Cartier | QLP> 99% | QLP> 99% | QLP> 99% |
| Jean-Lesage | Quebec Solidaire58% | Quebec Solidaire34% | Quebec Solidaire46% |
| Jean-Talon | Parti Quebecois89% | Parti Quebecois72% | Parti Quebecois81% |
| Jeanne-Mance–Viger | QLP> 99% | QLP> 99% | QLP> 99% |
| Joliette | Parti Quebecois> 99% | Parti Quebecois> 99% | Parti Quebecois> 99% |
| Jonquière | Parti Quebecois> 99% | Parti Quebecois83% | Parti Quebecois91% |
| L'Assomption | Parti Quebecois84% | Parti Quebecois79% | Parti Quebecois81% |
| La Peltrie | Conservatives of Quebec> 99% | Conservatives of Quebec95% | Conservatives of Quebec98% |
| La Pinière | QLP> 99% | QLP> 99% | QLP> 99% |
| La Prairie | QLP44% | QLP52% | QLP48% |
| Labelle | Parti Quebecois99% | Parti Quebecois90% | Parti Quebecois95% |
| Lac-Saint-Jean | Parti Quebecois> 99% | Parti Quebecois98% | Parti Quebecois> 99% |
| LaFontaine | QLP> 99% | QLP> 99% | QLP> 99% |
| Laurier-Dorion | Quebec Solidaire93% | Quebec Solidaire97% | Quebec Solidaire95% |
| Laval-des-Rapides | QLP> 99% | QLP90% | QLP95% |
| Laviolette–Saint-Maurice | Parti Quebecois75% | Parti Quebecois73% | Parti Quebecois74% |
| Les Plaines | Parti Quebecois84% | Parti Quebecois83% | Parti Quebecois83% |
| Lévis | Conservatives of Quebec63% | Conservatives of Quebec66% | Conservatives of Quebec64% |
| Lotbinière-Frontenac | Conservatives of Quebec94% | Conservatives of Quebec95% | Conservatives of Quebec95% |
| Louis-Hébert | Parti Quebecois77% | Parti Quebecois66% | Parti Quebecois71% |
| Marguerite-Bourgeoys | QLP> 99% | QLP> 99% | QLP> 99% |
| Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoiesplit | Conservatives of Quebec66% | Parti Quebecois69% | Conservatives of Quebec45% |
| Marie-Victorin | Parti Quebecois99% | Parti Quebecois95% | Parti Quebecois97% |
| Marquette | QLP> 99% | QLP> 99% | QLP> 99% |
| Maskinongé | Parti Quebecois70% | Parti Quebecois64% | Parti Quebecois67% |
| Masson | Parti Quebecois90% | Parti Quebecois87% | Parti Quebecois88% |
| Matane-Matapédia-Mitis | Parti Quebecois> 99% | Parti Quebecois> 99% | Parti Quebecois> 99% |
| Maurice-Richardsplit | Parti Quebecois37% | Quebec Solidaire60% | Quebec Solidaire45% |
| Mégantic | Conservatives of Quebec54% | Conservatives of Quebec53% | Conservatives of Quebec53% |
| Mercier | Quebec Solidaire95% | Quebec Solidaire98% | Quebec Solidaire96% |
| Mille-Îles | QLP> 99% | QLP94% | QLP97% |
| Mirabel | Parti Quebecois86% | Parti Quebecois85% | Parti Quebecois85% |
| Mont-Royal–Outremont | QLP> 99% | QLP97% | QLP98% |
| Montarville | Parti Quebecois86% | Parti Quebecois76% | Parti Quebecois81% |
| Montmorency | Conservatives of Quebec97% | Conservatives of Quebec88% | Conservatives of Quebec92% |
| Nelligan | QLP> 99% | QLP> 99% | QLP> 99% |
| Nicolet-Bécancour | Parti Quebecois58% | Parti Quebecois59% | Parti Quebecois58% |
| Notre-Dame-de-Grâce | QLP> 99% | QLP> 99% | QLP> 99% |
| Orfordsplit | QLP75% | Parti Quebecois56% | QLP55% |
| Papineau | Parti Quebecois46% | Parti Quebecois42% | Parti Quebecois44% |
| Pierre-Laporte | QLP76% | QLP95% | QLP86% |
| Pointe-aux-Trembles | Parti Quebecois97% | Parti Quebecois89% | Parti Quebecois93% |
| Pontiac | QLP> 99% | QLP> 99% | QLP> 99% |
| Portneuf | Conservatives of Quebec98% | Conservatives of Quebec91% | Conservatives of Quebec95% |
| Prévost | Parti Quebecois97% | Parti Quebecois94% | Parti Quebecois96% |
| René-Lévesque | Parti Quebecois> 99% | Parti Quebecois90% | Parti Quebecois95% |
| Repentigny | Parti Quebecois84% | Parti Quebecois78% | Parti Quebecois81% |
| Richelieu | Parti Quebecois98% | Parti Quebecois90% | Parti Quebecois94% |
| Richmond | Parti Quebecois84% | Parti Quebecois58% | Parti Quebecois71% |
| Rimouski | Parti Quebecois> 99% | Parti Quebecois> 99% | Parti Quebecois> 99% |
| Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basquessplit | CAQ41% | Parti Quebecois89% | Parti Quebecois58% |
| Robert-Baldwin | QLP> 99% | QLP> 99% | QLP> 99% |
| Roberval | Parti Quebecois> 99% | Parti Quebecois91% | Parti Quebecois96% |
| Rosemont | Parti Quebecois77% | Parti Quebecois53% | Parti Quebecois65% |
| Rousseau | Parti Quebecois90% | Parti Quebecois89% | Parti Quebecois90% |
| Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue | Parti Quebecois91% | Parti Quebecois62% | Parti Quebecois77% |
| Saint-François | Parti Quebecois79% | Parti Quebecois42% | Parti Quebecois60% |
| Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne | QLP> 99% | QLP89% | QLP94% |
| Saint-Hyacinthe | Parti Quebecois88% | Parti Quebecois83% | Parti Quebecois86% |
| Saint-Jean | Parti Quebecois97% | Parti Quebecois91% | Parti Quebecois94% |
| Saint-Jérôme | Parti Quebecois97% | Parti Quebecois93% | Parti Quebecois95% |
| Saint-Laurent | QLP> 99% | QLP> 99% | QLP> 99% |
| Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques | Quebec Solidaire80% | Quebec Solidaire93% | Quebec Solidaire87% |
| Sainte-Rose | QLP97% | QLP77% | QLP87% |
| Sanguinet | Parti Quebecois81% | Parti Quebecois75% | Parti Quebecois78% |
| Sherbrookesplit | Parti Quebecois56% | Quebec Solidaire75% | Quebec Solidaire60% |
| Soulanges | QLP83% | QLP90% | QLP86% |
| Taillon | Parti Quebecois95% | Parti Quebecois84% | Parti Quebecois89% |
| Taschereau | Parti Quebecois94% | Parti Quebecois87% | Parti Quebecois90% |
| Terrebonne | Parti Quebecois97% | Parti Quebecois83% | Parti Quebecois90% |
| Trois-Rivières | Parti Quebecois76% | Parti Quebecois74% | Parti Quebecois75% |
| Ungava | QLP57% | QLP56% | QLP57% |
| Vachon | QLP47% | QLP60% | QLP54% |
| Vanier-Les Rivières | Conservatives of Quebec76% | Conservatives of Quebec60% | Conservatives of Quebec68% |
| Vaudreuil | QLP> 99% | QLP> 99% | QLP> 99% |
| Verchères | Parti Quebecois> 99% | Parti Quebecois94% | Parti Quebecois97% |
| Verdun | QLP98% | QLP68% | QLP83% |
| Viau | QLP> 99% | QLP88% | QLP94% |
| Vimont-Auteuil | QLP99% | QLP92% | QLP95% |
| Westmount–Saint-Louis | QLP> 99% | QLP> 99% | QLP> 99% |
Party by party
Parti Quebecois +6 Harfang 68
- Vote
- 29.5%
- Vote Harfang
- 28.2%
- Chance of a majority
- 37%
QLP −2 Harfang 36
- Vote
- 24.0%
- Vote Harfang
- 24.1%
- Chance of a majority
- < 1%
Conservatives of Quebec −3 Harfang 15
- Vote
- 19.8%
- Vote Harfang
- 20.1%
- Chance of a majority
- < 1%
Quebec Solidaire +2 Harfang 8
- Vote
- 10.2%
- Vote Harfang
- 10.8%
- Chance of a majority
- < 1%
CAQ −3 Harfang 0
- Vote
- 15.5%
- Vote Harfang
- 15.3%
- Chance of a majority
- < 1%
The vote, with its margin of uncertainty
The solid bar is Orbit’s projected vote; the thin line, an 8-in-10 range; the black tick, our reference forecast.
- Parti Quebecois 29.5%
- QLP 24.0%
- Conservatives of Quebec 19.8%
- CAQ 15.5%
- Quebec Solidaire 10.2%
Where the two engines disagree
- Bellefeuille Orbit (quantum): Parti Quebecois · 85% Harfang (classical): CAQ
- Champlain Orbit (quantum): Parti Quebecois · 44% Harfang (classical): Conservatives of Quebec
- Chapleau Orbit (quantum): Parti Quebecois · 34% Harfang (classical): QLP
- Daniel-Johnson Orbit (quantum): Parti Quebecois · 74% Harfang (classical): Conservatives of Quebec
- Granby Orbit (quantum): Parti Quebecois · 60% Harfang (classical): CAQ
- Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie Orbit (quantum): Parti Quebecois · 69% Harfang (classical): Conservatives of Quebec
- Maurice-Richard Orbit (quantum): Quebec Solidaire · 60% Harfang (classical): Parti Quebecois
- Orford Orbit (quantum): Parti Quebecois · 56% Harfang (classical): QLP
- Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques Orbit (quantum): Parti Quebecois · 89% Harfang (classical): CAQ
- Sherbrooke Orbit (quantum): Quebec Solidaire · 75% Harfang (classical): Parti Quebecois
Orbit’s instruments
Voters who switched sides since the last election
30.3 at least, in points of the electorateAverage gap between pollsters
± 2.1 points, around the most likely stateCone of possibilities until election day
± 0.4 points of maximum movement for a party at 30%Days to election
1 October 5, 2026The test of the past
We replayed past elections using only the polls known the day before the vote. Here is the average gap, per party, between projected seats won and the real results — the same measure as our track record. Lower is better.
| Election | Orbit gap | Harfang gap | Ridings called right (Orbit) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Quebec 2022 | 1.6 | 1.8 | 92% |
| Quebec 2018 | 4.0 | 6.5 | 82% |
How Orbit works, in three ideas
Opinion travels on a sphere
A 2-point gain does not mean the same thing for a party at 5% and a party at 40%. By placing opinion on a curved sphere, Orbit knows this by instinct, and it carries the national swing to each riding the way you carry an arrow across a globe.
Polls are measurements
As in quantum physics, each poll is a measurement of a hidden state: the electorate. Orbit tracks that state day after day, erases each pollster’s own lean and lets no one dictate the average alone.
Qubits instead of dice
Each riding becomes a small quantum register. Instead of rolling dice 50,000 times, Orbit counts the seats exactly, in seconds. A real quantum circuit gives the same answer, to the billionth.