Îles-de-la-Madeleine
Provincial riding · Quebec
October 5, 2026 result
Joël Arseneau (Parti Québécois) wins with 66.5% of the vote, 46.0 points ahead of Gil Thériault (QLP).
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joël Arseneau | PQ | 5,061 | 66.5% |
| Gil Thériault | QLP | 1,560 | 20.5% |
| Zachary Jean | QS | 338 | 4.4% |
| Linda Lebel | CAQ | 330 | 4.3% |
| Evan Leblanc | PCQ | 202 | 2.7% |
| Mélodie Caron | Other | 115 | 1.5% |
Our forecast before the vote
We had the PQ favoured at 100% (forecast of October 4, 2026): the call held.
| Party | Forecast | Result | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 68.6% | 66.5% | −2.0 |
| QLP | 14.5% | 20.5% | +6.0 |
| QS | 2.7% | 4.4% | +1.7 |
| CAQ | 6.2% | 4.3% | −1.9 |
| PCQ | 6.1% | 2.7% | −3.4 |
| Other | 1.9% | 1.5% | −0.4 |
Next general election scheduled for October 7, 2030.
Advance voting · September 27 and 28
About 26% of votes were cast in advance
- Registered electors who voted
- 19.4% Rank 102 of 127
- Quebec average
- 23.6%
- Estimated share of votes already cast
- ≈ 26% Quebec: about 36%
- Compared with 2022
- +56% 2022: 12.4% · Quebec: +12%
Compared with 2022, advance voting rose here more than across Quebec (increase ranked 3 of 108 comparable ridings). In past elections, a stronger-than-expected rise mostly signalled higher overall turnout, not a winner.
Preliminary data from Élections Québec, subject to revision. The estimated share divides the rate by the riding's 2022 turnout (75.7%). See all 127 ridings
Compared with the average
| PQ | QLP | CAQ | PCQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Îles-de-la-Madeleine | 68.6% | 14.5% | 6.2% | 6.1% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 28.7%+39.8 | 24.8%−10.2 | 13.9%−7.7 | 20.2%−14.1 |
Simple average of the 127 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election (2022)
The PQ won by 6.4 points, with 75.7% turnout.
Our current projection: the PQ ahead by 53.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2022
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joël Arseneau Elected | PQ | 3,877 | 46.4 |
| Jonathan Lapierre | CAQ | 3,338 | 39.9 |
| Gil Thériault | QLP | 606 | 7.2 |
| Jean-Philippe Déraspe | QS | 450 | 5.4 |
| Evan Leblanc | PCQ | 93 | 1.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Gaspé PQ, safe seat
- Bonaventure PQ, safe seat
- Matane-Matapédia-Mitis PQ, safe seat
- Rimouski PQ, safe seat
- René-Lévesque PQ, safe seat
- Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques CAQ, toss-up
- Forecast updated