Robert-Baldwin
Provincial riding · Quebec · Montreal
October 5, 2026 result
Brigitte Garceau (Quebec Liberal Party) wins with 65.0% of the vote, 49.9 points ahead of Axel Lellouche (PCQ).
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brigitte Garceau | QLP | 19,984 | 65.0% |
| Axel Lellouche | PCQ | 4,650 | 15.1% |
| Alexandra Lacoste | QS | 2,705 | 8.8% |
| Maurice Daude | PQ | 1,507 | 4.9% |
| Sophie Leroux | CAQ | 1,035 | 3.4% |
| Paul Henry Danylewich | Other | 532 | 1.7% |
| Hélène Savard | Other | 309 | 1.0% |
Our forecast before the vote
We had the Quebec Liberals favoured at 100% (forecast of October 4, 2026): the call held.
| Party | Forecast | Result | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| QLP | 61.5% | 65.0% | +3.5 |
| PCQ | 21.8% | 15.1% | −6.7 |
| QS | 0.6% | 8.8% | +8.2 |
| PQ | 1.5% | 4.9% | +3.4 |
| CAQ | 7.4% | 3.4% | −4.0 |
| Other | 7.1% | 2.7% | −4.4 |
Next general election scheduled for October 7, 2030.
Advance voting · September 27 and 28
About 30% of votes were cast in advance
- Registered electors who voted
- 17.0% Rank 113 of 127
- Quebec average
- 23.6%
- Estimated share of votes already cast
- ≈ 30% Quebec: about 36%
- Compared with 2022
- +25% 2022: 13.6% · Quebec: +12%
Compared with 2022, advance voting rose here more than across Quebec (increase ranked 10 of 108 comparable ridings). In past elections, a stronger-than-expected rise mostly signalled higher overall turnout, not a winner.
Preliminary data from Élections Québec, subject to revision. The estimated share divides the rate by the riding's 2022 turnout (55.8%). See all 127 ridings
Compared with the average
| QLP | PCQ | CAQ | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Robert-Baldwin | 61.5% | 21.8% | 7.4% | 7.1% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 24.8%+36.7 | 20.2%+1.6 | 13.9%−6.5 | 1.5%+5.6 |
Simple average of the 127 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election (2022)
The Quebec Liberals won by 41.7 points, with 55.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the Quebec Liberals ahead by 39.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2022
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brigitte Garceau Elected | QLP | 17,228 | 57.8 |
| Axel Lellouche | PCQ | 4,779 | 16.0 |
| Maïté Beaudoin | CAQ | 2,909 | 9.8 |
| Marieve Ruel | QS | 1,498 | 5.0 |
| Jonathan Gray | Other | 1,231 | 4.1 |
| Qaiser Choudhry | Other | 792 | 2.7 |
| Alix Martel | PQ | 776 | 2.6 |
| David MacFarquhar | Other | 614 | 2.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Fabre QLP, safe seat
- Chomedey QLP, safe seat
- Saint-Laurent QLP, safe seat
- Marquette QLP, safe seat
- Jacques-Cartier QLP, safe seat
- Nelligan QLP, safe seat
- Forecast updated