Roberval
Provincial riding · Quebec
October 5, 2026 result
Isabelle Thibeault (Parti Québécois) wins with 36.5% of the vote, 10.5 points ahead of Pierre Gagné (PCQ).
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Isabelle Thibeault | PQ | 10,168 | 36.5% |
| Pierre Gagné | PCQ | 7,256 | 26.1% |
| Yanick Baillargeon | CAQ | 5,202 | 18.7% |
| Serge Bergeron | QLP | 3,736 | 13.4% |
| Guillaume David | QS | 1,473 | 5.3% |
Our forecast before the vote
We had the PQ favoured at 100% (forecast of October 4, 2026): the call held.
| Party | Forecast | Result | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 43.5% | 36.5% | −6.9 |
| PCQ | 19.9% | 26.1% | +6.1 |
| CAQ | 16.7% | 18.7% | +2.0 |
| QLP | 14.2% | 13.4% | −0.8 |
| QS | 5.3% | 5.3% | +0.0 |
Next general election scheduled for October 7, 2030.
Advance voting · September 27 and 28
About 37% of votes were cast in advance
- Registered electors who voted
- 22.7% Rank 70 of 127
- Quebec average
- 23.6%
- Estimated share of votes already cast
- ≈ 37% Quebec: about 36%
- Compared with 2022
- +19% 2022: 19.2% · Quebec: +12%
Compared with 2022, advance voting rose here more than across Quebec (increase ranked 22 of 108 comparable ridings). In past elections, a stronger-than-expected rise mostly signalled higher overall turnout, not a winner.
Preliminary data from Élections Québec, subject to revision. The estimated share divides the rate by the riding's 2022 turnout (60.8%). See all 127 ridings
Compared with the average
| PQ | PCQ | CAQ | QLP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roberval | 43.5% | 19.9% | 16.7% | 14.2% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 28.7%+14.7 | 20.2%−0.3 | 13.9%+2.8 | 24.8%−10.6 |
Simple average of the 127 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election (2022)
The CAQ won by 35.7 points, with 60.8% turnout.
Our current projection: the PQ ahead by 21.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2022
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nancy Guillemette Elected | CAQ | 15,017 | 56.2 |
| Patrice Bouchard | PQ | 5,488 | 20.5 |
| Samuel Gaudreault | PCQ | 3,038 | 11.4 |
| Michaël Ottereyes | QS | 1,826 | 6.8 |
| Maxim Lavoie | QLP | 1,217 | 4.6 |
| Lynda Lalancette | Other | 141 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Lac-Saint-Jean PQ, safe seat
- Jonquière PQ, safe seat
- Dubuc PQ, safe seat
- Chicoutimi PQ, safe seat
- Laviolette–Saint-Maurice PQ, toss-up
- Chauveau PCQ, safe seat
- Forecast updated