2026 midterms: Democrats take back the House and the Senate
- House: 243 D, 147 R
- Senate: 54 D, 44 R (including seats not up)
- Governors: 22 D, 12 R (races called)
- Seats changing hands: 47
Independent election forecasts: United States, Canada, United Kingdom, France, Spain.
U.S. midterms, Canada, the U.K., France and Spain, updated daily. By Kim Leclerc, twenty years of election campaigns.
Who builds the forecasts
Kim Leclerc
Kim Leclerc has spent more than twenty years inside election campaigns, from door-knocking to national war rooms, in Canada, France and the United States. Vote-Scope turns that experience into models tested every week against past elections.
Every forecast
Forecasts by country
United States
All United States pages- President
Electoral college, 270 to win, and the invisible primary in both parties.
- House
All 435 districts, redistricting included, through the 2026 midterms.
- Senate
The seats up in 2026 and the arithmetic of control.
- Primaries
The 2026 primary results, county by county.
- Latino Radar
Where the Latino vote is moving, district by district.
- Lame-Duck Index
How much political weight the president has left, on a 100-point scale.
Canada
All Canada pages- Federal
All 343 ridings, and how many seats each party can expect.
- Quebec
The October 2026 general election on the new 127-seat map.
- Ontario
Queen’s Park after 2025, riding by riding.
- Federal by-elections
Upcoming by-elections, seat by seat.
- Ontario by-elections
Provincial by-elections, modelled on their own local terrain.
- Quebec candidate barometer
Who is running where.
- Canada Goose Index
The prime minister’s standing, on one scale you can follow over time.
United Kingdom
All United Kingdom pages- General election
All 650 constituencies, checked against the large published constituency polls.
- Clacton by-election
Nigel Farage held Clacton in the 13 August by-election.
France
All France pages- Presidential
Who reaches the runoff in 2027, and who wins it.
- Legislative
All 577 constituencies, with the second-round withdrawals.
- Declared field
Every declared, probable and withdrawn candidate for 2027.
- Barrage Index
How solid the firewall against the far right still is.
Spain
All Spain pages- Congress
All 350 seats projected province by province, and the calendar to the November 29 vote.
- Housing tracker
How housing became Spain’s top worry, and which party voters trust on it.
- D’Hondt simulator
Set each party’s vote and see the 350 seats fall province by province.
Indices
All Indices pages- All instruments
Every Vote-Scope index on one page, with a filter.
- CUSMA Showdown
Canada Goose against Lame-Duck: who blinks first on trade.
- Fraser Interim Index
How an interim leader is holding the Ontario Liberals together.
- Budget desk
Fiscal analysis, one page per budget edition.
Sports
All Sports pages- MLB 2026
The race to the World Series, updated every night.
- NHL
Playoff paths and goalie volatility, season by season.
- World Cup 2026
Archive: what the model saw before Spain lifted the trophy.
- Sports track record
Every sports call the model made, scored after the fact.
Methodology after the signal
How the projections are built.
Every projection is built from public polls, an open Bayesian method, and the source data behind it — all on the page.
- Most of our projections aggregate public polls in a Bayesian BSTS model — house effects measured and corrected, accuracy calibrated on past elections. Simulation only translates it all into seats.
- Prediction-market data (Polymarket) sits beside the model as a disagreement detector, not a substitute.
- Riding and constituency probabilities are conditioned on national and regional swings, then re-aggregated to seat distributions.
- Source data, methodology notes, and model outputs are public at each desk. Updated on a rolling basis as new polls arrive.