Canada Desk
Where is the Canadian map stable, and where is it only pretending?
Federal, Quebec, Ontario, and by-elections — read race by race, from public polls down to the seat.
CUSMA · Live instruments
Canada Goose Index · Mark Carney
85.8 /100
Honking
Carney's domestic political strength in Canada — the hand behind the CUSMA review.
Trade-war desk · CUSMA
+61.9
Canada commands the table
Canada strikes back. C$27.6B in counter-tariffs now hit U.S. goods.
Leverage gap vs the Trump Lame-Duck Index.
Latest from the Canada desk
Federal projection — as of 2026-09-16
Based on 286 polls · 50,000 simulations
Liberal
230 seats projected
Majority probability: 100% · Largest party: 100%
Conservative
84 seats projected
Majority threshold: 172 / 343 seats
Federal projection
Liberal
Majority probability: 100% · Largest party: 100%
Provincial · Québec
Parti Quebecois
Majority probability: 15%
Provincial · Ontario
Progressive Conservative
Majority probability: 69%
By-elections · Federal
Federal by-elections →
Individual by-election desks with fundamentals-based projections, historical results, and resolved race archives.
By-elections · Ontario
Ontario by-elections →
Three vacant seats — Hamilton East—Stoney Creek, Scarborough Southwest and York—Simcoe. Votes expected 3 September 2026.
Editorial indicator
Fraser Interim Index
Positive Fraser signal
In this desk
Everything this desk publishes.
- Federal
343 ridings, seat pressure, and the 45th Parliament as it stands.
- Quebec
The October 2026 general election on the new 127-seat map.
- Ontario
Queen’s Park after 2025, riding by riding.
- Federal by-elections
Every pending seat: personal vote stripped, turnout residual applied.
- Ontario by-elections
Provincial by-elections, modelled on their own local terrain.
- Quebec candidate barometer
Who is running where, and what the declared field says about access.
- Canada Goose Index
The prime minister’s standing, on one scale you can follow over time.
Methodology after the signal
Three jurisdictions. One projection standard.
Federal, Quebec, and Ontario projections share a common Bayesian BSTS pipeline: polls are aggregated with house effects measured and corrected, between-party correlations estimated from the data, and accuracy calibrated on past elections — with the simulation only translating votes into seat distributions and riding-level probabilities at the end.
- Polls are sourced from Elections Canada-registered firms and weighted by recency, sample size, and firm track record.
- Riding-level probabilities are conditioned on national and regional swings, then re-aggregated to total seat distributions.
- Majority thresholds are modeled explicitly: federal at 172/343, Quebec at 64/127, Ontario at 63/124.
- By-election projections use a fundamentals model — incumbency, margin history, demographics — updated as campaign data arrives.