Riding profile

Prince George-Valemount

Provincial riding — BC · North

The question

Prince George-Valemount: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Current forecast

Con

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
22.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Con 51.5%
  • NDP 28.8%
  • GP 12.0%
  • CentreBC 4.0%
  • OneBC 3.6%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Con NDP GP CentreBC
HerePrince George-Valemount 51.5%28.8%12.0%4.0%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 42.4% +9.1 39.5% −10.7 9.9% +2.0 3.2% +0.8

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Prince George-Valemount, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 20-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 52% vote share, against 29% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Rosalyn Bird

Sits with Con

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Con
Margin
20.3 pts
Turnout
53.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.5 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Rosalyn Bird Elected Con — 55.2 —
Clay Pountney NDP — 34.9 —
Gwen Johansson GP — 9.9 —
Last model run
Cycle
bc_44