Riding profile

Peace River South

Provincial riding — BC · North

The question

Peace River South: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Current forecast

Con

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
75.4
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Con 82.8%
  • OneBC 5.5%
  • CentreBC 5.0%
  • GP 3.0%
  • OTH 2.8%
  • NDP 0.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Con OneBC CentreBC GP
HerePeace River South 82.8%5.5%5.0%3.0%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 42.4% +40.4 3.4% +2.1 3.2% +1.8 9.9% −6.9

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Peace River South, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 64-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 83% vote share, against 6% for OneBC, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Larry Neufeld

Sits with Con

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Con
Margin
64.2 pts
Turnout
56.6%
Margin shift vs current projection
+11.2 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Larry Neufeld Elected Con — 69.8 —
Mike Bernier OTH — 24.6 —
Marshall Bigsby NDP — 5.6 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
bc_44