Riding profile

Nechako Lakes

Provincial riding — BC · North

The question

Nechako Lakes: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Current forecast

Con

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
41.9
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Con 63.1%
  • NDP 21.2%
  • GP 7.5%
  • OneBC 4.2%
  • CentreBC 4.0%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Con NDP GP OneBC
HereNechako Lakes 63.1%21.2%7.5%4.2%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 42.4% +20.7 39.5% −18.4 9.9% −2.4 3.4% +0.8

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Nechako Lakes, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 40-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 63% vote share, against 21% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

John Rustad

Sits with Con

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Con
Margin
40.2 pts
Turnout
63.4%
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.6 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
John Rustad Elected Con — 67.5 —
Murphy Abraham NDP — 27.2 —
Douglas Gook GP — 5.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
bc_44