Riding profile

Cariboo-Chilcotin

Provincial riding — BC · Interior

The question

Cariboo-Chilcotin: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Current forecast

Con

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
40.8
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Con 65.1%
  • NDP 24.2%
  • OneBC 4.3%
  • CentreBC 4.0%
  • GP 2.4%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Con NDP OneBC CentreBC
HereCariboo-Chilcotin 65.1%24.2%4.3%4.0%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 42.4% +22.7 39.5% −15.3 3.4% +0.9 3.2% +0.8

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Cariboo-Chilcotin, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 39-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 65% vote share, against 24% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Lorne Doerkson

Sits with Con

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Con
Margin
39.2 pts
Turnout
60.0%
Margin shift vs current projection
+1.6 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Lorne Doerkson Elected Con — 69.6 —
Michael Moses NDP — 30.4 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
bc_44