Riding profile

Fraser-Nicola

Provincial riding — BC · Interior

The question

Fraser-Nicola: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Current forecast

Con

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
20.7
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Con 51.2%
  • NDP 30.5%
  • GP 11.5%
  • OneBC 3.6%
  • CentreBC 3.1%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Con NDP GP OneBC
HereFraser-Nicola 51.2%30.5%11.5%3.6%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 42.4% +8.8 39.5% −9.0 9.9% +1.6 3.4% +0.2

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Fraser-Nicola, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 18-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 51% vote share, against 31% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Tony Luck

Sits with Con

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Con
Margin
17.9 pts
Turnout
56.7%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.7 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Tony Luck Elected Con — 54.3 —
Francyne Joe NDP — 36.4 —
Jonah Timms GP — 9.3 —

Around the region

Nearby ridings

Tone only — pick a riding to see the numbers.

Last model run
Cycle
bc_44