Riding profile

Kamloops-North Thompson

Provincial riding — BC · Interior

The question

Kamloops-North Thompson: a safe seat for the Conservatives?

Current forecast

Con

Safe

Probability
100%
Mean margin (pts)
29.1
P(close race)
0%

Projected vote share

Projection by party

  • Con 55.9%
  • NDP 26.8%
  • GP 9.5%
  • OneBC 3.9%
  • CentreBC 3.9%

Watch list

The tightest races

Smallest projected margin. Open one for the numbers.

  1. Surrey-FleetwoodNDP58 %2.0 pt margin
  2. Cowichan ValleyCon54 %2.0 pt margin
  3. Vancouver-LangaraCon62 %2.1 pt margin

In context

How this riding stacks up

Con NDP GP OneBC
HereKamloops-North Thompson 55.9%26.8%9.5%3.9%
Provincial averageBritish Columbia 42.4% +13.5 39.5% −12.7 9.9% −0.4 3.4% +0.4

Provincial averages computed across the 93 riding-level projections (unweighted mean).

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Editorial read

Kamloops-North Thompson, a mixed riding in British Columbia, elected a member with the Conservatives in the previous cycle, with a 27-point margin. The Vote-Scope model projects the Conservatives ahead at 56% vote share, against 27% for the NDP, and the probability of a close race is negligible.

Sitting member

Ward Stamer

Sits with Con

Parliament
43th

Previous election · 2024

Won by
Con
Margin
26.8 pts
Turnout
61.9%
Margin shift vs current projection
+2.3 pts

Detailed result · BC 2024

Candidates and votes

Candidate Party Votes % Occupation
Ward Stamer Elected Con — 59.7 —
Maddi Genn NDP — 32.9 —
Tristan Cavers GP — 7.4 —
Last model run
Cycle
bc_44