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France · 2027 presidential poll

Ipsos — October 22, 2026

Fieldwork
October 21, 2026 → October 22, 2026
Sample
1,500 respondents
Published
October 22, 2026
Pollster release
Pollster release

First round, voting intention

  • Marine Le Pen 32%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon 17%
  • Édouard Philippe 14%
  • Raphaël Glucksmann 13%
  • David Lisnard 6.5%
  • Bruno Retailleau 5.5%
  • Éric Zemmour 4%
  • Marine Tondelier 3.5%
  • Fabien Roussel 2.5%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 1.5%
  • Nathalie Arthaud 0.5%

Our reading of this poll

Compared with our average for the same lineup (“Le Pen · Philippe · Attal · Glucksmann”):

  • Le Pen 33.5% vs 35.1% (−1.6 pt)
  • Retailleau 7.5% vs 6.5% (+1 pt)

Since the pollster’s previous wave (September 9, 2026), same lineup:

  • Attal 6% → 4% (−2 pts)
  • Mélenchon 15.5% → 17% (+1.5 pt)
  • Glucksmann 11.5% → 13% (+1.5 pt)
See the previous wave

House effect: on the same lineups, Ipsos usually puts Glucksmann 1.5 pt higher than other pollsters (13 comparisons within 60 days). Not an error: each pollster has its method, and our average accounts for it.

Where each candidacy takes its votes from: the candidacy effect

This poll tested 4 candidate line-ups

French pollsters test several hypothetical fields in the same survey. Each one is shown below — the pollster’s own release rarely puts them side by side.

Line-up 1 · with Philippe, Lisnard

  • Marine Le Pen32%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon17%
  • Édouard Philippe14%
  • Raphaël Glucksmann13%
  • David Lisnard6.5%
  • Bruno Retailleau5.5%
  • Éric Zemmour4%
  • Marine Tondelier3.5%
  • Fabien Roussel2.5%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan1.5%
  • Nathalie Arthaud0.5%

Line-up 2 · with Philippe, Attal

  • Marine Le Pen33.5%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon17%
  • Raphaël Glucksmann13%
  • Édouard Philippe13%
  • Bruno Retailleau7.5%
  • Éric Zemmour4.5%
  • Gabriel Attal4%
  • Marine Tondelier3.5%
  • Fabien Roussel2%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan1.5%
  • Nathalie Arthaud0.5%

Line-up 3 · with Philippe

  • Marine Le Pen33.5%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon17%
  • Édouard Philippe15%
  • Raphaël Glucksmann14%
  • Bruno Retailleau8%
  • Éric Zemmour4.5%
  • Marine Tondelier3.5%
  • Fabien Roussel2%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2%
  • Nathalie Arthaud0.5%

Line-up 4 · with Attal

  • Marine Le Pen33.5%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon17%
  • Raphaël Glucksmann15.5%
  • Bruno Retailleau11.5%
  • Gabriel Attal9.5%
  • Éric Zemmour4.5%
  • Marine Tondelier3.5%
  • Fabien Roussel2.5%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2%
  • Nathalie Arthaud0.5%

A single poll is one measurement with its own margin of error. Our model weights every published poll, corrects for house effects and projects the range of plausible outcomes.

Our weighted average and projection All 2027 presidential polls

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