France · 2027 presidential poll
OpinionWay — October 22, 2026
First round, voting intention
Our reading of this poll
Since the pollster’s previous wave (October 14, 2026), same lineup:
- Lisnard 4% → 6% (+2 pts)
- Le Pen 35% → 36% (+1 pt)
- Mélenchon 15% → 16% (+1 pt)
House effect: on the same lineups, OpinionWay usually puts Mélenchon 1.5 pt lower and Glucksmann 1.2 pt higher than other pollsters (7 comparisons within 60 days). Not an error: each pollster has its method, and our average accounts for it.
Run-off match-ups tested
- null 31% — 69% null
- null 44% — 56% null
A single poll is one measurement with its own margin of error. Our model weights every published poll, corrects for house effects and projects the range of plausible outcomes.
Our weighted average and projection All 2027 presidential polls