France · 2027 presidential poll
Cluster17 — October 22, 2026
First round, voting intention
Our reading of this poll
Compared with our average for the same lineup (“Le Pen · Philippe · Glucksmann”):
- Le Pen 33% vs 35.1% (−2.1 pts)
- Mélenchon 18.5% vs 16.9% (+1.6 pt)
House effect: on the same lineups, Cluster17 usually puts Mélenchon 2.8 pts higher, Le Pen 2.8 pts lower and Philippe 1.1 pt higher than other pollsters (10 comparisons within 60 days). Not an error: each pollster has its method, and our average accounts for it.
This poll tested 3 candidate line-ups
French pollsters test several hypothetical fields in the same survey. Each one is shown below — the pollster’s own release rarely puts them side by side.
Line-up 1 · with Philippe, Lisnard, Hollande
- Marine Le Pen30.5%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon19.5%
- Édouard Philippe17%
- David Lisnard8%
- Bruno Retailleau7%
- François Hollande6.5%
- Éric Zemmour3.5%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan3%
- Marine Tondelier2.5%
- Fabien Roussel2%
- Nathalie Arthaud0.5%
Line-up 2 · with Philippe, Glucksmann
- Marine Le Pen33%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon18.5%
- Édouard Philippe16%
- Raphaël Glucksmann13%
- Bruno Retailleau8%
- Éric Zemmour4%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan3%
- Fabien Roussel2%
- Marine Tondelier2%
- Nathalie Arthaud0.5%
Line-up 3 · with Glucksmann, Attal
- Marine Le Pen32.5%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon19.5%
- Raphaël Glucksmann14%
- Gabriel Attal12%
- Bruno Retailleau10%
- Éric Zemmour4%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan3.5%
- Fabien Roussel2%
- Marine Tondelier2%
- Nathalie Arthaud0.5%
A single poll is one measurement with its own margin of error. Our model weights every published poll, corrects for house effects and projects the range of plausible outcomes.
Our weighted average and projection All 2027 presidential polls