France · 2027 presidential poll
Harris Interactive — October 21, 2026
First round, voting intention
Our reading of this poll
Compared with our average for the same lineup (“Le Pen · Philippe · Attal · Glucksmann”):
- Zemmour 6% vs 4.4% (+1.6 pt)
Since the pollster’s previous wave (October 12, 2026), same lineup:
- Glucksmann 10% → 12% (+2 pts)
- Mélenchon 18% → 17% (−1 pt)
- Retailleau 7% → 6% (−1 pt)
House effect: on the same lineups, Harris Interactive usually puts Glucksmann 1.1 pt lower and Mélenchon 1 pt higher than other pollsters (40 comparisons within 60 days). Not an error: each pollster has its method, and our average accounts for it.
Run-off match-ups tested
- null 30% — 70% null
- null 43% — 57% null
This poll tested 5 candidate line-ups
French pollsters test several hypothetical fields in the same survey. Each one is shown below — the pollster’s own release rarely puts them side by side.
Line-up 1 · with Philippe, Lisnard, Villepin
- Marine Le Pen33%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon17%
- Édouard Philippe15%
- Raphaël Glucksmann12%
- David Lisnard7%
- Éric Zemmour5%
- Bruno Retailleau4%
- Fabien Roussel2%
- Marine Tondelier2%
- Nathalie Arthaud1%
- Dominique de Villepin1%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan1%
Line-up 2 · with Attal, Lisnard, Villepin
- Marine Le Pen33%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon17%
- Raphaël Glucksmann14%
- Gabriel Attal10%
- David Lisnard8%
- Bruno Retailleau5%
- Éric Zemmour5%
- Fabien Roussel2%
- Marine Tondelier2%
- Dominique de Villepin2%
- Nathalie Arthaud1%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan1%
Line-up 3 · with Philippe, Attal
- Marine Le Pen35%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon17%
- Édouard Philippe13%
- Raphaël Glucksmann12%
- Bruno Retailleau6%
- Éric Zemmour6%
- Gabriel Attal5%
- Marine Tondelier2%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2%
- Nathalie Arthaud1%
- Fabien Roussel1%
Line-up 4 · with Philippe
- Marine Le Pen35%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon17%
- Édouard Philippe16%
- Raphaël Glucksmann13%
- Bruno Retailleau7%
- Éric Zemmour5%
- Fabien Roussel2%
- Marine Tondelier2%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2%
- Nathalie Arthaud1%
Line-up 5 · with Attal
- Marine Le Pen35%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon19%
- Raphaël Glucksmann13%
- Gabriel Attal11%
- Bruno Retailleau9%
- Éric Zemmour6%
- Fabien Roussel2%
- Marine Tondelier2%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2%
- Nathalie Arthaud1%
A single poll is one measurement with its own margin of error. Our model weights every published poll, corrects for house effects and projects the range of plausible outcomes.
Our weighted average and projection All 2027 presidential polls