France · 2027 presidential poll
IFOP — October 20, 2026
First round, voting intention
Our reading of this poll
House effect: on the same lineups, IFOP usually puts Philippe 1.1 pt higher than other pollsters (22 comparisons within 60 days). Not an error: each pollster has its method, and our average accounts for it.
Run-off match-ups tested
- null 32% — 68% null
- null 41% — 59% null
- null 43% — 57% null
- null 44% — 56% null
- null 42% — 58% null
This poll tested 8 candidate line-ups
French pollsters test several hypothetical fields in the same survey. Each one is shown below — the pollster’s own release rarely puts them side by side.
Line-up 1 · with Glucksmann, Philippe, Retailleau, Lisnard, Attal, Tondelier, Roussel, Ruffin, Villepin
- Marine Le Pen34%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon15%
- Raphaël Glucksmann12%
- Édouard Philippe12%
- Bruno Retailleau5.5%
- David Lisnard5.5%
- Gabriel Attal4%
- Éric Zemmour3%
- Marine Tondelier2.5%
- Fabien Roussel2%
- François Ruffin1.5%
- Dominique de Villepin1.5%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan1.5%
- Nathalie Arthaud0%
Line-up 2 · with Glucksmann, Philippe, Attal, Retailleau, Tondelier, Roussel, Ruffin, Polony
- Marine Le Pen35%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon15%
- Raphaël Glucksmann12%
- Édouard Philippe12%
- Gabriel Attal6%
- Bruno Retailleau6%
- Éric Zemmour3.5%
- Marine Tondelier3%
- Fabien Roussel2%
- François Ruffin2%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2%
- Natacha Polony1%
- Nathalie Arthaud0.5%
Line-up 3 · with Glucksmann, Philippe, Lisnard, Attal, Tondelier, Roussel
- Marine Le Pen36%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon15.5%
- Raphaël Glucksmann13%
- Édouard Philippe13%
- David Lisnard7%
- Gabriel Attal5%
- Marine Tondelier3%
- Éric Zemmour3%
- Fabien Roussel2%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2%
- Nathalie Arthaud0.5%
Line-up 4 · with Glucksmann, Philippe, Attal, Retailleau, Roussel, Tondelier
- Marine Le Pen36%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon16.5%
- Raphaël Glucksmann13.5%
- Édouard Philippe12%
- Gabriel Attal5%
- Bruno Retailleau5%
- Éric Zemmour3.5%
- Fabien Roussel3%
- Marine Tondelier3%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2%
- Nathalie Arthaud0.5%
Line-up 5 · with Glucksmann, Attal, Retailleau, Tondelier, Roussel
- Marine Le Pen38%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon16%
- Raphaël Glucksmann16%
- Gabriel Attal13%
- Bruno Retailleau7%
- Marine Tondelier3%
- Éric Zemmour3%
- Fabien Roussel2%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan1.5%
- Nathalie Arthaud0.5%
Line-up 6 · with Philippe, Glucksmann, Retailleau, Tondelier, Roussel
- Marine Le Pen36%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon16.5%
- Édouard Philippe15%
- Raphaël Glucksmann14%
- Bruno Retailleau7.5%
- Éric Zemmour3.5%
- Marine Tondelier3%
- Fabien Roussel2.5%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan1.5%
- Nathalie Arthaud0.5%
Line-up 7 · with Philippe, Hollande, Attal, Retailleau
- Marine Le Pen38%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon20%
- Édouard Philippe14%
- François Hollande10%
- Gabriel Attal6.5%
- Bruno Retailleau6%
- Éric Zemmour3%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2%
- Nathalie Arthaud0.5%
Line-up 8 · with Glucksmann, Philippe, Retailleau
- Marine Le Pen37%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon18%
- Raphaël Glucksmann16%
- Édouard Philippe16%
- Bruno Retailleau6.5%
- Éric Zemmour3.5%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2.5%
- Nathalie Arthaud0.5%
A single poll is one measurement with its own margin of error. Our model weights every published poll, corrects for house effects and projects the range of plausible outcomes.
Our weighted average and projection All 2027 presidential polls