France · 2027 presidential poll
Elabe — October 16, 2026
First round, voting intention
Our reading of this poll
Compared with our average for the same lineup (“Le Pen · Villepin · Attal · Glucksmann”):
- Glucksmann 16.5% vs 14% (+2.5 pts)
- Le Pen 33.5% vs 35.1% (−1.6 pt)
- Mélenchon 16% vs 17.1% (−1.1 pt)
Since the pollster’s previous wave (August 28, 2026), same lineup:
- Glucksmann 14% → 16.5% (+2.5 pts)
- Mélenchon 14% → 16% (+2 pts)
- Attal 12% → 10.5% (−1.5 pt)
House effect: on the same lineups, Elabe usually puts Mélenchon 2.3 pts lower, Glucksmann 1.7 pt higher and Le Pen 1 pt higher than other pollsters (16 comparisons within 60 days). Not an error: each pollster has its method, and our average accounts for it.
Run-off match-ups tested
- null 31% — 69% null
- null 47.5% — 52.5% null
This poll tested 6 candidate line-ups
French pollsters test several hypothetical fields in the same survey. Each one is shown below — the pollster’s own release rarely puts them side by side.
Line-up 1 · with Attal, Villepin, Tondelier
- Marine Le Pen33.5%
- Raphaël Glucksmann16.5%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon16%
- Gabriel Attal10.5%
- Bruno Retailleau9.5%
- Éric Zemmour3.5%
- Dominique de Villepin3%
- Marine Tondelier2.5%
- Fabien Roussel2%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2%
- Nathalie Arthaud1%
Line-up 2 · with Philippe, Lisnard, Tondelier
- Marine Le Pen31.5%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon15.5%
- Édouard Philippe15.5%
- Raphaël Glucksmann15%
- Bruno Retailleau6.5%
- David Lisnard5.5%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan3%
- Éric Zemmour3%
- Marine Tondelier2.5%
- Fabien Roussel1.5%
- Nathalie Arthaud0.5%
Line-up 3 · with Attal, Lisnard, Ruffin
- Marine Le Pen31%
- Raphaël Glucksmann16.5%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon16%
- Gabriel Attal9.5%
- Bruno Retailleau9%
- David Lisnard6.5%
- Éric Zemmour3.5%
- François Ruffin3%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2.5%
- Fabien Roussel1.5%
- Nathalie Arthaud1%
Line-up 4 · with Philippe, Attal, Tondelier
- Marine Le Pen32.5%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon15.5%
- Raphaël Glucksmann15.5%
- Édouard Philippe13.5%
- Bruno Retailleau7.5%
- Gabriel Attal4.5%
- Éric Zemmour3.5%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan3%
- Marine Tondelier2.5%
- Nathalie Arthaud1.5%
- Fabien Roussel1.5%
Line-up 5 · with Philippe, Tondelier, Villepin
- Marine Le Pen32.5%
- Édouard Philippe16.5%
- Raphaël Glucksmann15.5%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon15%
- Bruno Retailleau7%
- Éric Zemmour3.5%
- Marine Tondelier3%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2.5%
- Dominique de Villepin2%
- Fabien Roussel1.5%
- Nathalie Arthaud1%
Line-up 6 · with Philippe, Tondelier, Polony
- Marine Le Pen33.5%
- Édouard Philippe16.5%
- Raphaël Glucksmann16%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon15%
- Bruno Retailleau7.5%
- Éric Zemmour3%
- Marine Tondelier2.5%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2.5%
- Natacha Polony1.5%
- Nathalie Arthaud1%
- Fabien Roussel1%
A single poll is one measurement with its own margin of error. Our model weights every published poll, corrects for house effects and projects the range of plausible outcomes.
Our weighted average and projection All 2027 presidential polls