France · 2027 presidential poll
Elabe — August 28, 2026
First round, voting intention
Our reading of this poll
Compared with our average for the same lineup (“Le Pen · Villepin · Attal · Glucksmann”):
- Le Pen 34.5% vs 31% (+3.5 pts)
- Attal 12% vs 14.2% (−2.2 pts)
- Glucksmann 14% vs 12.1% (+1.9 pt)
Since the pollster’s previous wave (July 10, 2026), same lineup:
- Glucksmann 11.5% → 14% (+2.5 pts)
- Attal 13.5% → 12% (−1.5 pt)
- Retailleau 11% → 9.5% (−1.5 pt)
House effect: on the same lineups, Elabe usually puts Mélenchon 2.3 pts lower, Le Pen 1.2 pt higher and Roussel 1.1 pt higher than other pollsters (12 comparisons within 60 days). Not an error: each pollster has its method, and our average accounts for it.
This poll tested 8 candidate line-ups
French pollsters test several hypothetical fields in the same survey. Each one is shown below — the pollster’s own release rarely puts them side by side.
Line-up 1 · with Glucksmann, Attal, Tondelier, Villepin
- Marine Le Pen34.5%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon14%
- Raphaël Glucksmann14%
- Gabriel Attal12%
- Bruno Retailleau9.5%
- Éric Zemmour4%
- Fabien Roussel3%
- Marine Tondelier3%
- Dominique de Villepin2.5%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2%
- Nathalie Arthaud1.5%
Line-up 2 · with Philippe, Glucksmann, Attal, Tondelier
- Marine Le Pen34%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon14.5%
- Édouard Philippe14.5%
- Raphaël Glucksmann12.5%
- Bruno Retailleau7%
- Gabriel Attal6.5%
- Marine Tondelier4%
- Éric Zemmour4%
- Fabien Roussel3%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2.5%
- Nathalie Arthaud1.5%
Line-up 3 · with Philippe, Glucksmann, Tondelier, Villepin
- Marine Le Pen34%
- Édouard Philippe17%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon14%
- Raphaël Glucksmann11.5%
- Bruno Retailleau6.5%
- Éric Zemmour4%
- Marine Tondelier3.5%
- Fabien Roussel3%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan3%
- Dominique de Villepin2%
- Nathalie Arthaud1.5%
Line-up 4 · with Philippe, Tondelier, Faure, Villepin
- Marine Le Pen35.5%
- Édouard Philippe20.5%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon14.5%
- Bruno Retailleau7%
- Fabien Roussel4.5%
- Marine Tondelier4%
- Éric Zemmour4%
- Olivier Faure3.5%
- Dominique de Villepin2.5%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2.5%
- Nathalie Arthaud1.5%
Line-up 5 · with Philippe, Hollande, Tondelier, Villepin
- Marine Le Pen34.5%
- Édouard Philippe18%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon15%
- François Hollande8%
- Bruno Retailleau8%
- Marine Tondelier4%
- Fabien Roussel3%
- Dominique de Villepin3%
- Éric Zemmour3%
- Nathalie Arthaud2%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan1.5%
Line-up 6 · with Attal, Hollande, Ruffin
- Marine Le Pen34.5%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon14%
- Gabriel Attal12.5%
- Bruno Retailleau9%
- François Hollande8%
- François Ruffin6%
- Éric Zemmour4.5%
- Fabien Roussel4%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2.5%
- Nathalie Arthaud1.5%
Line-up 7 · with Philippe, Hollande, Tondelier
- Marine Le Pen34%
- Édouard Philippe19.5%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon14%
- François Hollande7.5%
- Bruno Retailleau6%
- Marine Tondelier4%
- Éric Zemmour4%
- Fabien Roussel3.5%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2.5%
- Nathalie Arthaud2%
Line-up 8 · with Philippe, Hollande, Ruffin
- Marine Le Pen35%
- Édouard Philippe19%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon14.5%
- François Hollande9%
- Bruno Retailleau9%
- François Ruffin6%
- Fabien Roussel2.5%
- Éric Zemmour2.5%
- Nathalie Arthaud1.5%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan1.5%
A single poll is one measurement with its own margin of error. Our model weights every published poll, corrects for house effects and projects the range of plausible outcomes.
Our weighted average and projection → All 2027 presidential polls →