France · 2027 presidential poll
Cluster17 — September 1, 2026
First round, voting intention
Our reading of this poll
Compared with our average for the same lineup (“Le Pen · Villepin · Attal · Glucksmann”):
- Mélenchon 18% vs 15.5% (+2.5 pts)
Since the pollster’s previous wave (July 24, 2026), same lineup:
- Le Pen 30% → 31.5% (+1.5 pt)
- Glucksmann 10% → 11.5% (+1.5 pt)
- Retailleau 10% → 9% (−1 pt)
House effect: on the same lineups, Cluster17 usually puts Le Pen 3.7 pts lower, Mélenchon 3.3 pts higher and Dupont-Aignan 1.2 pt higher than other pollsters (6 comparisons within 60 days). Not an error: each pollster has its method, and our average accounts for it.
This poll tested 3 candidate line-ups
French pollsters test several hypothetical fields in the same survey. Each one is shown below — the pollster’s own release rarely puts them side by side.
Line-up 1 · with Philippe, Ruffin, Lisnard
- Marine Le Pen29%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon17%
- Édouard Philippe17%
- Raphaël Glucksmann11%
- Bruno Retailleau6.5%
- François Ruffin4%
- David Lisnard4%
- Dominique de Villepin3.5%
- Éric Zemmour3%
- Fabien Roussel2%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan2%
- Nathalie Arthaud1%
Line-up 2 · with Attal, Tondelier
- Marine Le Pen31.5%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon18%
- Gabriel Attal13.5%
- Raphaël Glucksmann11.5%
- Bruno Retailleau9%
- Dominique de Villepin4%
- Éric Zemmour4%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan3%
- Marine Tondelier2.5%
- Fabien Roussel2%
- Nathalie Arthaud1%
Line-up 3 · with Philippe, Tondelier
- Marine Le Pen30%
- Jean-Luc Mélenchon18%
- Édouard Philippe18%
- Raphaël Glucksmann11.5%
- Bruno Retailleau7.5%
- Dominique de Villepin3.5%
- Éric Zemmour3.5%
- Nicolas Dupont-Aignan3%
- Fabien Roussel2%
- Marine Tondelier2%
- Nathalie Arthaud1%
A single poll is one measurement with its own margin of error. Our model weights every published poll, corrects for house effects and projects the range of plausible outcomes.
Our weighted average and projection → All 2027 presidential polls →