France · 2027 presidential poll

Cluster17 — July 24, 2026

Fieldwork
July 22, 2026 → July 24, 2026
Sample
1,506 respondents
Published
July 24, 2026
Pollster release
Pollster release →

First round, voting intention

  • Marine Le Pen 30%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon 18%
  • Gabriel Attal 14%
  • Raphaël Glucksmann 10%
  • Bruno Retailleau 10%
  • Dominique de Villepin 4%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan 4%
  • Éric Zemmour 4%
  • Marine Tondelier 3%
  • Fabien Roussel 2%
  • Nathalie Arthaud 1%

Our reading of this poll

House effect: on the same lineups, Cluster17 usually puts Le Pen 3.7 pts lower, Mélenchon 3.3 pts higher and Dupont-Aignan 1.2 pt higher than other pollsters (6 comparisons within 60 days). Not an error: each pollster has its method, and our average accounts for it.

Where each candidacy takes its votes from: the candidacy effect →

Run-off match-ups tested

  • null 39% — 61% null

This poll tested 2 candidate line-ups

French pollsters test several hypothetical fields in the same survey. Each one is shown below — the pollster’s own release rarely puts them side by side.

Line-up 1 · with Attal

  • Marine Le Pen30%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon18%
  • Gabriel Attal14%
  • Raphaël Glucksmann10%
  • Bruno Retailleau10%
  • Dominique de Villepin4%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan4%
  • Éric Zemmour4%
  • Marine Tondelier3%
  • Fabien Roussel2%
  • Nathalie Arthaud1%

Line-up 2 · with Philippe

  • Marine Le Pen30%
  • Jean-Luc Mélenchon18%
  • Édouard Philippe18%
  • Raphaël Glucksmann10%
  • Bruno Retailleau8%
  • Éric Zemmour4%
  • Marine Tondelier3%
  • Dominique de Villepin3%
  • Nicolas Dupont-Aignan3%
  • Fabien Roussel2%
  • Nathalie Arthaud1%

A single poll is one measurement with its own margin of error. Our model weights every published poll, corrects for house effects and projects the range of plausible outcomes.

Our weighted average and projection → All 2027 presidential polls →

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