Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry
Provincial riding · Ontario · Greater Toronto (905)
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the PC Party a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 37.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| PC | OLP | NDP | OTH | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Stormont—Dundas—South Glengarry | 59.9% | 22.7% | 13.4% | 3.4% |
| Provincial averageOntario | 41.6%+18.2 | 32.5%−9.8 | 20.3%−6.9 | 3.0%+0.4 |
Simple average of the 124 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Current member
Hon. Nolan Quinn · PC
Previous election (2025)
The PC Party won by 42.3 points, with 43.0% turnout.
Our current projection: the PC Party ahead by 37.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2025
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nolan Quinn Elected | PC | 23,221 | 61.6 |
| Devon Monkhouse | OLP | 7,254 | 19.2 |
| Jeremy Rose | NDP | 4,726 | 12.5 |
| Nicholas Lapierre | GP | 980 | 2.6 |
| Stefan Kohut | OTH | 818 | 2.2 |
| Brigitte Sugrue | OTH | 715 | 1.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Glengarry—Prescott—Russell PC, safe seat
- Orléans OLP, safe seat
- Ottawa—Vanier OLP, safe seat
- Ottawa South OLP, safe seat
- Carleton PC, safe seat
- Ottawa Centre NDP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated