Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the SNP a 97% chance of winning, with an average lead of 3.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 87%.
Compared with the average
| SNP | Conservative | Reform UK | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey | 29.3% | 26.2% | 20.0% | 7.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 2.9%+26.4 | 20.4%+5.7 | 23.1%−3.0 | 10.3%−2.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 76.0% |
|---|
Current member
Graham Leadbitter · SNP
Previous election (2024)
The SNP won by 2.2 points.
Our current projection: the SNP ahead by 3.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Graham Leadbitter Elected | SNP | 14,961 | 32.1 |
| Kathleen Robertson | Conservative | 13,960 | 30.0 |
| James Hynam | Labour | 8,259 | 17.7 |
| Neil Alexander | Lib Dems | 3,785 | 8.1 |
| Steve Skerrett | Reform UK | 3,490 | 7.5 |
| Draeyk Van der Horn | Green | 1,676 | 3.6 |
| Euan Morrice | Other | 423 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross Lib Dems, safe seat
- Perth and Kinross-shire SNP, safe seat
- Orkney and Shetland Lib Dems, safe seat
- Dundee Central SNP, safe seat
- Stirling and Strathallan SNP, safe seat
- Arbroath and Broughty Ferry SNP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated