Orkney and Shetland
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 33.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | SNP | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Orkney and Shetland | 49.8% | 16.2% | 14.8% | 11.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+39.5 | 2.9%+13.3 | 23.1%−8.3 | 10.4%+1.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 89.4% |
|---|
Current member
Mr Alistair Carmichael · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 37.7 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 33.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alistair Carmichael Elected | Lib Dems | 11,392 | 55.1 |
| Robert Leslie | SNP | 3,585 | 17.3 |
| Alex Armitage | Green | 2,046 | 9.9 |
| Robert Smith | Reform UK | 1,586 | 7.7 |
| Conor Savage | Labour | 1,493 | 7.2 |
| Shane Painter | Conservative | 586 | 2.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey SNP, toss-up
- Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross Lib Dems, safe seat
- Aberdeen North SNP, safe seat
- Gordon and Buchan SNP, toss-up
- Aberdeenshire North and Moray East SNP, toss-up
- Aberdeen South Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated