Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 14.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | SNP | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caithness, Sutherland and Easter Ross | 41.4% | 26.9% | 15.6% | 6.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+31.1 | 2.9%+24.0 | 23.1%−7.4 | 10.4%−4.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 65.0% |
|---|
Current member
Jamie Stone · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 22.8 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 14.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Stone Elected | Lib Dems | 22,736 | 49.4 |
| Lucy Beattie | SNP | 12,247 | 26.6 |
| Eva Kestner | Labour | 3,409 | 7.4 |
| Sandra Skinner | Reform UK | 3,360 | 7.3 |
| Fiona Fawcett | Conservative | 1,860 | 4.0 |
| Anne Thomas | Green | 1,641 | 3.6 |
| Steve Chisholm | Other | 795 | 1.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Moray West, Nairn and Strathspey SNP, toss-up
- Orkney and Shetland Lib Dems, safe seat
- Perth and Kinross-shire SNP, safe seat
- Inverness, Skye and West Ross-shire SNP, toss-up
- Stirling and Strathallan SNP, safe seat
- Dundee Central SNP, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated