Na h-Eileanan an Iar
Westminster constituency · Scotland
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 81% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.6 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 87%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | SNP | Reform UK | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Na h-Eileanan an Iar | 26.0% | 23.8% | 18.7% | 15.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+1.8 | 2.9%+20.9 | 23.1%−4.3 | 5.0%+10.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Employment rate | 69.5% |
|---|
Current member
Torcuil Crichton · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 28.4 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 2.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Torcuil Crichton Elected | Labour | 6,692 | 49.5 |
| Susan Thomson | SNP | 2,856 | 21.1 |
| Angus MacNeil | Other | 1,370 | 10.1 |
| Tony Ridden | Reform UK | 697 | 5.2 |
| Kenny Barker | Conservative | 647 | 4.8 |
| Donald Boyd | Other | 496 | 3.7 |
| Steven Welsh | Other | 388 | 2.9 |
| Jamie Dobson | Lib Dems | 382 | 2.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Foyle SDLP, safe seat
- East Londonderry DUP, toss-up
- West Tyrone Sinn Féin, safe seat
- North Antrim Other, toss-up
- Mid Ulster Sinn Féin, safe seat
- Fermanagh and South Tyrone Sinn Féin, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated